31 May 2024

From Insights to Action: the power of measuring progress in the transition to a green economy

In a webinar held on 29 May 2024, the PAGE secretariat presented the key findings, methodology, and conclusions from the third Edition of the Green Economy Progress Measurement Framework (GEPMF), discussing how they can inform policy and investment choices to accelerate a fair and green economic transition amid ongoing global challenges. Participants also explored insights and lessons from other green economy tools and metrics and how they can help shape more equitable and sustainable economies. The event brought together economists from the PAGE network as well as external partners invested in measuring progress in green economy at global and country level.

Introducing the Third Edition of the GEPMF

Marking the launch of the third edition of the GEPMF, the webinar aimed to bring a deeper understanding of the Third Edition’s contributions to measuring and advancing Inclusive Green Economy (IGE) transitions, especially in the context of recent global shocks.

Moderated by Adis Israngkura, Associate Professor at the School of Development Economics at the National Institute of Development Administration and a research advisor for Resource Sustainability and Mitigation Policy at the Thailand Development Research Institute, the webinar shared strategic insights and policy recommendations for leveraging green economy metrics for policy formulation, investment planning, and sustainable development strategies.

Elisa Tonda, Chief of Resources and Markets Branch at UNEP, delivered the opening remarks, highlighting the nonlinear trajectory towards sustainability. She acknowledged the challenges posed by the recent global shocks and highlighted the vital role of collaborative initiatives such as PAGE. “Partnerships and initiatives like PAGE can play a strategic role in addressing that nonlinear trajectory and accelerate progress towards a green economy and towards the ambition that the Agenda 2030 had set for us,” she stated.

The co-authors of the Third Edition of the GEPMF, Jose Pineda, Senior Advisor at DevTech Systems, and Stijn Van Hummelen, Managing Director at Cambridge Econometrics, presented the key findings of the PAGE publication.

The paper finds that, before the pandemic, countries experienced significant progress towards an inclusive green economy globally, showing improvements compared with the values of the two previous editions –with some persisting challenges in key areas such as carbon emissions and material footprint.

They highlighted the critical need for massive investments into inclusive green economy measures that can reinvigorate progress in transitioning towards fairer and greener economies after the recent setback caused by global shocks.

Xin Zhou, Research Leader at the Integrated Sustainability Centre at the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), highlighted the Third Edition’s methodological innovations, particularly those related to the estimation of the impacts of major global shocks on green economy progress and the integration of a modelling tool enabling a forward-looking perspective.

Our indicators are directly linked to key SDG indicators, which helps countries consolidate information they are already reporting. This feature of the index captures progress by measuring changes rather than levels, allowing countries starting from difficult initial conditions to be recognized for their efforts.

Portrait photo - Jose PINEDA, Senior Advisor DevTech Systems and Senior Consultant PAGE, Co-lead Report Author

Jose Pineda, Senior Advisor at DevTech Systems and co-author of the third edition of the GEPMF

We use a global model covering 71 regions, simulating responses to changes in energy, environment, and economy sectors. This helps us measure trade-offs, such as the impact of decarbonization on employment and inequality.

photo portrait Stijn Van Hummelen, Managing Director at Cambridge Econometric

Stijn Van Hummelen, Managing Director at Cambridge Econometric and co-author of the third edition of the GEPMF

Leveraging Green Economy Metrics for Sustainable Economic Transformation

The presentation was followed by a panel discussion wherein economists and other experts in the field of green economy measurement shared their insights and and outlined recommendations for leveraging green economy metrics for sustainable economic transformation.

The panel featured Hala Razian, Programme Management Officer at the Secretariat of the International Resource Panel at UNEP; Sofía Martinez, Global Policy Director at the Green Economy Coalition (GEC); Ruben Salem Sabado Jr., Researcher at the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI); Margaret Chitiga, Professor of Economics at the University of Pretoria; and Anna Amalia, Directorate of Environmental Affairs, Ministry of National Development Planning of Indonesia (Bappenas).

Hala Razian shared recent findings of the International Resource Panel’s Global Resources Outlook 2024, emphasizing some key congruencies with the conclusions of the Third Edition of the GEPMF. “What we find in our report is that material use has grown three times since 1970 […] If we continue along those trends, we expect a 60% growth in resource use by 2060 […] This underscores the urgent need for sustainable material use strategies to be integrated into socioeconomic development pathways,” she emphasized.

Ruben Salem Sabado Jr. discussed the key dimensions of the Green Growth Index, which measures country performance in achieving sustainability targets, like SDGs, and climate and biodiversity targets. He explained how some countries have benefited from this index, adapting it to their particular contexts. “This index can serve as a guidance for country planning frameworks, helping develop green growth strategies, including identifying and implementing bankable projects,” he explained.

Sofia Martinez discussed the unique features of the Green Economy Tracker, a critical tool to benchmark how nations are transitioning to sustainable and more equitable economies. “The tracker is very easy to understand and can be used by civil society to push for change”, she stressed. She referred to the ongoing collaboration between PAGE and the Green Economy Coalition to promote inclusive, fair, green and circular economic transformation. “We are working together with the European Union to accelerate green and circular economies around the world”.

Margaret Chitiga shared lessons learned from the South Africa COVID-19 IGE Rapid Modelling exercise under PAGE. She discussed some communalities of this modeling exercise with the Third Edition of the GEPMF, particularly the importance that green investments are accompanied by just transition measures, ensuring that the shift towards a sustainable economy is equitable and inclusive and that vulnerable workers and communities are protected and supported. “Transitions have to be just and green at the same time”, she concluded.

Anna Amelia shared insights from Indonesia’s Green Economy Index, launched at a G20 side event in Bali in 2022, which builds on PAGE’s Green Economy Progress Index. The Indonesia’s Green Economy Index includes 15 indicators covering environmental, social, and economic aspects under the SMART framework, with indicators that are “specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound”. She emphasized the importance of measuring performance annually and setting long-term goals, highlighting the collaborative efforts required at both national and subnational levels.

To conclude the event, Vera Weick, PAGE Secretariat Officer-in-Charge, gave the closing remarks emphasizing how the Third Edition of the GEPMF provides decision-makers with clear, evidence-based insights, helping them make informed choices that tackle recent challenges and push sustainability goals forward. She also reiterated the importance of measuring the trade-offs of alternative policy choices and the need to ensure that the just transition happens at the same time as the green transition, “we simply don’t have the time to do one and then fix the other”, she highlighted.

Accelerating the recovery through the transition towards climate-neutral economies

The Third Edition of the Green Economy Progress Measurement Framework offers robust metrics and practical insights and enables countries to implement green growth strategies aligned with the SDGs.

As nations tackle post-pandemic recovery and climate change, the GEP framework provides clear guidance, helping pave the way for a more sustainable and equitable future.

The Third Edition includes (i) a quantitative estimation of the impact of recent global shocks, (ii) a methodological upgrade that connects the Green Economy Progress Index (GEP Index) with a modelling tool, and (iii) an assessment of the effects of policy and investment options to accelerate the net-zero transition while recovering from major shocks.

Read the working paper

Cover page of the publication Accelerating the recovery through the transition

Key findings and Key Policy Recommendations

PAGE & Tools for Policymakers

PAGE developed this tool for policymakers, analysts and other stakeholders to gain understanding on how green economy is progressing in their respective country. The Green Economy Progress (GEP) Measurement Framework helps countries evaluate their overall progress towards  an Inclusive Green Economy and to enable a cross-country comparison of progress. The GEP Measurement Framework complements UN Environment’s previously developed green economy indicators framework (UNEP, 2012; UNEP, 2014; and UNEP, 2015), which uses several types of indicators at different stages of a typical policymaking cycle.

The first edition of the GEPMF (methodology and application), launched in 2017, proved to be a valuable tool for policymakers, analysts, and stakeholders to measure the progress of 105 countries towards IGE. The second edition, released in 2021, introduced the concept of environmental footprints and was applied to a sample of 110 countries to measure the impact of national consumption and production patterns. Considering recent global disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, the third edition of GEPMF provides a more accurate assessment of progress.